None has declared candidacy yet. Each one of the two is currently in a position of power and influence. Each has the resources at his disposal to push his presidential ambition. Each enjoys frontrunner status from their respective constituencies, according to public opinion – Deni among the Daroods, Rooble among the Hawiye. Each hails from one of neighboring Federal Member States of Puntland and Galmudugh. Regionally, they have common interests geopolitically, economically and in security cooperation. They could be complementary as president and prime minister of Somalia. They have federal ambitions at a time when Galkayo is no longer a divided city along clan lines. They seem, therefore, to realize their political chance has arrived.
While this is, at this moment, a pure speculation, there is a potential that both would run in this federal election.
One would ask what about other possible candidates, especially from Hawiye camp. Good question. Give me names. Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, to name just two of those running now as they look frontrunners among individuals in that camp. Each of the two was a former president. None was impressive enough to be given a 2nd shot at Presidency. The Somali Doctrine of not re-electing a president plays out here too. Moreover, the two are antagonistic too as they were rivals in previous presidential race. They are unlikely to form a joint front in this race.
In conclusion, expect surprises in these Federal elections as Somali politics is as unpredictable as peace and war among Somali nomads.
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