They say there is calm before the storm. There are multiple political problems simmering currently in Somalia as a whole. Let us start with issues at peripheries (Federal Member States).
PUNTLAND: The recent move
by Puntland Parliament to raise up the stakes required to remove a sitting MP in direct challenge to the powers of the State President, and the speculation about Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni being an undeclared Federal Presidential Candidate look like a harbinger of what is about to happen next in the State, politically. Obviously, there is resistance on the part of Dhulbahante MPs to the policy of the government of Puntland on the planned 1P1V as their political fortunes in One Person One Vote elections look in jeopardy in swathes of SSC territory (mostly Sool Region). President Deni and his Aaran Jaan political allies are no longer cohesive with regards to their expectations from the outcome of Somalia’s national elections. Aaran Group prefers a Hawiye candidate to win in order to have a say in the appointment of the next prime minister. Forgetting about the good fortunes the Speaker of the Puntland Parliament, Mr. Abwaan, had been enjoying because of the help he had received at expense of others from the State President, he decided to venture out on his own and take risks he doesn’t know how it would play out.
GALMUDUGH: The flip-flop political positions of Galmudugh State President, Qoor Qoor, Federal presidential candidacy of Abdikarim Guled and governance and security challenges posed by Al-shabab make the political situation precarious in that State.
HIRSHABELLE: The State exists only in the books, never succeeding as self-sustaining entity away from Mogadishu shadows. Hiiraan Region isn’t integrated with State Capital City, Jowhar – a situation that makes too difficult to reach at consensus in holding a Federal election in the State.
SOUHTWEST: Sharif Hassan, the former state president and now a Federal presidential candidate, continued incarceration of Al-Shabab leader, Roobow, and State’s preference to maintain the 4.5 Clan Power-sharing arrangement in Somalia make the political situation unpredictable in Southwest State.
JUBALAND: Gedo Region issue is unresolved and therefore the impasse still holds out.
BANADIR: Farmajo is using deep-state to meddle in the independence of the Electoral Commission, planting already his men at its chair and vice-chair, and using Prime Minister Rooble as a Trojan Horse against the chances and political ambitions of other candidates.
With all predictions and analysis, there could be political storms in many parts of Somalia in the run-up to the Federal elections. Stay tuned.