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The recent political and security developments in Mogadishu and Beletxaawo in Jubaland are clear indications of what could happen in Somalia’s future governance:

1. Return to dictatorship facilitated and staged by untested and unknown tin-pot dictator of Farmajo type, taking advantage of weak public institutions and unenforceable laws.

2. Defeat and disappearance of federalism as a result of an individual or group power grab through unlawful manners or by constitutional coup as it had happened in Mogadishu in April 12, 2021.

When there are no checks and balance of power, this is the most likely scenario in Somalia. Add to this, there are no organized civil society organizations to lead and inform this confused and chaotic society as Somalis. What do you expect from people who don’t know their rights and obligations as citizens of this country? Any populist demagogue could appear in the Somali political scene to mislead the ignorant public and take over the reigns of the government.

Right now in Somalia, we have only individual and interest groups, instead of genuine civil society and patriotic political activists. That reality poses the greatest danger of all.

Finally, an equal danger is coming now from ill-informed general public. This situation has developed into an ungovernable society in the absence of dedicated media campaigns for mass education and teaching of civic education in schools. This is the unenviable state of our union today. Can we reverse these national and regional trends? For sure, it will take many years, hard work and tremendous public resources.

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