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USA pressure on Abyi regime is bearing fruits with Eritrean army pullout from Tigray and retreat of Ethiopian forces from major cities there, including the regional capital, Mekelle. Addis Ababa leadership is losing ground in the war. Ethiopia had benefitted from Western assistance since time immemorial against its real and perceived enemies like Somalis and surrounding muslim countries. This time Prime Minister Abyi had ignored Ethiopian history and ventured out into uncharted foreign policy adventures. The result is that Ethiopia has lost its traditional Western allies.

It looks that Abyi has given in, under pressure, to negotiate with TPLF leaders. Ethiopian internal situation is now chaotic and unpredictable. It is also unclear whether Abyi would be able to hang on to power in a turbulent Ethiopia, and whether his expected gesture for peaceful negotiation would settle and calm things down in Ethiopia.

TPLF would unlikely push towards Addis Ababa, for they would experience the same Western pressure as Abyi has suffered from. They would be forced to negotiate with either Abyi or his would-be successors.

The new political and military developments in Ethiopia would have impact on Somalia as well, especially with regards to the recent unholy alliance between Farmajo, Afewarki and Abyi. It would also negatively impact on the Somali Regional state and its current Addis-appointed nominal leader, Mustafe Cagjar, who relied heavily on Abyi and supported Farmajo’s shenanigans in Somalia. This is still a developing story. Stay tuned.

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